Monday, August 24, 2015


Whilst President James Michel is running around patting himself on the back as if successful businesses are all down to him and pretending it’s not election campaigning; warnings of the impending economic meltdown are everywhere. The Chairman of Seychelles Chamber of Commerce and industry (SCCI), Marco Francis with the fake degree, is not doing much better; he`s recommending everyone make chocolate.

Acting like Ostriches is not what the people of Seychelles expect and saying you didn’t see the collapse coming when it does, will not suffice. The warnings are everywhere and have been for months; they are failing to warn the business community. The consequences of the heavy $500 million debt burdened on the people of Seychelles by the current regime, will commence to rear its ugly head. James Michels` Government have not planned for this eventuality as evidenced by doubling his and his cronies salaries only a couple of years ago.

The Telegraph’s John Ficenec in the UK has written an excellent piece warning of a possible market crash in the coming weeks. It is only a matter of time before stock markets collapse under the weight of their lofty expectations and record valuations. China currency devaluation signals endgame leaving equity markets free to collapse under the weight of impossible expectations.

He identifies eight key “signs things could get a whole lot worse.” 

1 - China slowdown
2 - Commodity collapse
3 - Resource sector credit crisis
4 - Dominoes begin to fall
5 - Credit markets roll over
6 - Interest rate shock
7 - Bull market third longest on record
8 - Overvalued US market

There are various reasons, both fundamental and technical, to believe that a market crash is almost upon us. This crash will affect virtually all world markets, including and especially the big Western Markets which have thus far escaped the devastation already afflicting the developing markets.

The fundamental reasons for a market crash now are big and obvious – the ravages of deflation and depression brought about by extremes of debt which must cut into corporate profits – in Japan the debt situation is now hopeless, the Sovereign debt crisis set to crush Europe and probably destroy the euro, the collapse and implosion of the monstrous debt fuelled bubble in China which is already underway, an accelerating currency crisis in the Far-East exacerbated by the recent Chinese devaluation of the Yuan, and the collapse also already underway in Emerging Markets. Given that US markets have been driven to giddying heights by the combination, among other things, of maxed out margin debt and stock buybacks, it is clear that a crash of perhaps unprecedented proportions is on the cards.

Global investors received another shock when Reuters reported in its latest weekly update using data from the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, that key shipping freight rates for transporting containers from ports in Asia to Northern Europe fell by 26.7 percent to $469 per 20-foot container (TEU) in the week ended on Friday.

The collapse in rates is nothing short of a bloodbath: "it was the third consecutive week of falling freight rates on the world’s busiest route and rates are now nearly 60 percent lower than three weeks ago.

Seychelles must be warned; 2008 was just a walk in the park. The eventualities are unimaginable with a total global financial reset a realistic possibility.

By A.Pierre